Election latest: Labour to win landslide and Farage to become MP for first time, poll projects (2024)

The latest Ipsos poll is "terrible news" for the Conservative Party, says chief political correspondent Jon Craig.

It would be a result "much worse than 1997" - the worst since 1906, he said

But 117 seats are still too close to call in the analysis, he explains.

"Polls are a snapshot, but when you have a trend like we have now, where they are all fairly similar, this is terrible news for the tories."

Ipsos estimatesLabour could win 453 seats, while theConservatives would take just 115, giving Sir Keir Starmer's party a256-seat majority.

Turning to former tory donor John Caudwell's endorsem*nt of the Labour Party, Craig says it's "double trouble".

"We don't know if Mr Caudwell is actually going to give some money to the Labour party, but he's not donating to the tories and he's switched his allegiance."

Sophy presses former Conservative MP Philip Dunne on whether the Conservatives think it's all over.

It comes after the prime minister spent the day campaigning in traditionally safe Tory seats in the South West.

Mr Dunne says Rishi Sunak has "been all over the place throughout this campaign".

He says the prime minister "hasn't given up" and has "made it very clear he's fighting, every waking moment, to try to retain the Conservative government and Conservative candidates all over the country".

'No huge surprise' Tory support is waning

Asked if he is worried about the future of the Conservative Party, Mr Dunne, who is not standing in this election, says all political parties in office for a prolonged period "go through sort of waves of enthusiasm and support and waning of support".

He adds: "So it's no huge surprise that the opinion polls are suggesting that our support is declining somewhat at the moment."

Former Conservative MPPhilip Dunne, who's not standing at this election, tellsSophy Ridgethe government's Rwanda scheme is a "deterrent" for illegal immigration.

Rishi Sunak has said the first flights will take off next month if the Conservatives win the election.

Bur Mr Dunne says a separate agreement with France had worked until 2018 and says the two countries need to co-operate more.

Asked whether the Conservative Party would take responsibility for a breakdown in the relationship with France, he says: "I don't think there has been a breakdown in goodwill, I think there's been a challenge of implementation."

He says the UK needs "to be talking to the French about what they can actually do to stop this".

"We need to be working together to try to solve these problems."

Former Conservative Party donor John Caudwell has announced he is endorsing and voting for Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party.

The billionaire Phones4U founder was one of the biggest donors to the Tories ahead of the 2019 general election, donating £500,000 to Boris Johnson's campaign.

Mr Caudwell said he had been "rather despairing" at the Tories' performance "for many years now".

He said he donated the money "to help avert the disaster that would have been Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street" but has been "increasingly critical of Tory failures since then".

He highlights the "mismanagement of the economy" by then chancellor Rishi Sunak during COVID, the "lowering of ethical standards" under former prime minister Boris Johnson, and "the Liz Truss debacle".

Mr Cauldwell called for "a very strong Labour government that can take extremely bold decisions".

"I will be doing my best to influence them wherever I can, in putting the great back in Britain," he added.

Sir Keir said he was "delighted" with the endorsem*nt from someone "with such a successful track record in business".

During our panel discussion about immigration, Jim Murphy, former leader of Scottish Labour, tellsSophy Ridgea Labour policy that may work to reduce immigration is "dealing with the gangs in the same way you would deal with terrorists".

Mr Murphy says: "We were promised Brexit would stop all this and it hasn't. So we have to do something different. And all the parties will struggle with this."

He says people want to come to the UK because "for all the faults in our country, it's still a very appealing place to be".

A change of government would give a fresh chance to look at the issue, adding: "The one thing I think that Labour's cottoned on to, I think may work, is dealing with the gangs in the same way that you would deal with terrorists.

"Without any empathy, without any excuses, and with the full force of the law. I can only hope that that would work."

Labour's Anneliese Dodds says communities need to be "unleashed" to keep pubs as local hubs.

Publicans are finding it too difficult to keep their establishments once property developers "start circling", she says.

The party chair dodges the question when asked if Labour would extend the beer duty freeze.

But she does give some insight into her favourite bar beverage - real ale.

Sophy Ridgeturns to comments made today by shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves, who said she wants Labour to "hit the ground running" if they win the election.

Asked if that means there would be a fiscal event before summer, Ms Dodds says only that Mr Reeves will be "thinking this through very carefully".

Our first guest is Labour's shadow equalities secretary Anneliese Dodds, who tellsSophy Ridgethe country needs a "clear plan" to tackle migration.

She says the Conservatives have not delivered the necessary changes and Labour has a clear plan in relation to stopping small boats, adding: "We cannot continue with a situation where criminal gangs are operating with impunity.

"Labour set out that plan to stop those criminal gangs (referring to the party's proposal for a new border command), to stop that vile trade.

"But we also need to have a clear plan on migration for work, where we've seen such a huge rise under the Conservatives, again with no plan."

She says "Labour has a plan to ensure we can deal with that too", highlighting the need to train a domestic workforce to help in sectors like health and social care.

Labour faces 'challenge' to convince voters

Ms Dodds was also challenged on polling showing 52% of voters saying they do not believe Labour is being honest on migration.

She told Sophy she can see why people are "cynical about the power of politics" after hearing so many promises by the government.

She says it is "a challenge for all politicians" and says Labour is "determined to turn our country around, to be really upfront with people about where there are challenges".

As Sophy Ridge outlined in the previous post, immigration is front of mind for many voters heading to the polls on 4 July.

More people in the UK think immigration has a negative impact on society compared to a positive one, according to a new survey carried out by YouGov exclusively for Sky News.

Across the UK, 43% of people asked thought that immigration has a negative impact on British society, compared to 35% who said it has a positive impact.

Our online campaign correspondent Tom Cheshire has been diving into the data behind what is one of the biggest issues at this election:

Hundreds of people gathered on the shoreline in France, clambering on to dinghies, some with young babies.

Such scenes are the perfect illustration of the immigration challenge facing whoever wins the next election.

But there's another thing that illustrates the scale of the challenge.

Sky News polling by YouGov reveals a deep distrust in all parties.

52% of people said they think Labour aren't telling the truth about what they think of immigration – and 49% think the same of the Conservatives.

And they don't think either party will sort it out.

People told us they think immigration would increase under both a Labour government and a Conservative one - even though their official plans are to reduce it.

People just don't believe they’ll make good on their promises.

And that deep-seated distrust, that cynicism, is the real challenge facing whoever wins the next election.

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgeis live now on Sky News.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

After a relatively quiet day, Sophy will be joined by Labour Party chairAnneliese Doddsand former Conservative MPPhilip Dunne.

And on Sophy's panel are:

• Jim Murphy, former leader of Scottish Labour;
• Nimco Ali, former government adviser.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgefrom Monday to Thursday on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.